Sri Lanka dollar bonds tumble on post-election IMF, debt rework woes

LONDON : Sri Lankan dollar bonds fell sharply on Monday as investors worry an election win by Anura Kumara Dissanayake could see him revisit the terms of the country’s International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout and debt restructuring.
Dissanayake, who won the Saturday ballot running for the National People’s Power (NPP) alliance, took office as president on Monday, promising change for the island nation, which is emerging from its worst economic crisis in more than seven decades.
Shorter-dated bonds suffered some of the biggest falls in early Asian trading, dropping more than 4 cents on the dollar, Tradeweb data showed. By end of trading the 2025 maturity was down 2.125 cents, its largest daily drop since mid-April- and bid at just over 50 cents.
The country’s $2.9 billion, four-year IMF loan arrangement has been key to the country’s recovery while it has also tried to restructure its debt as required by the Fund.
The IMF on Monday welcomed the previous government’s agreement in principle with its international bondholders and said it looked forward to working with President Dissanayake.
“On the economic front, the NPP has stated that it would be looking to renegotiate parts of the $2.9 billion IMF program,” JPMorgan’s Toshi Jain said in a note to clients.
“Some of its leaders have expressed displeasure with the terms of the debt restructuring while Mr. Dissanayake has stated that he is committed to debt repayments.”
The fund is due to undertake a regular review of reform progress on Oct. 1, which once passed and signed off by the executive board triggers a payout of a funding tranche.
“We will discuss the timing of the third review of the IMF-supported program with the new administration as soon as practicable,” a fund spokesperson said via email.
A second source of concern for investors was that the change in government could also lead to a renegotiation of a long-sought debt deal finalised with bondholders last week.
“A Dissanayake win is the worst possible outcome for Sri Lanka’s bonds, raising question marks not only for the IMF programme but also whether a new administration would honour the agreement reached with creditors on 19 September,” Hasnain Malik at Tellimer wrote in a note to clients.
Sri Lanka’s currency and stocks fared better on the day. The rupee strengthened by 0.3 per cent against the dollar while the main stock index gained more than 1 per cent. Sri Lanka stocks have risen by just over 4 per cent this year but have lost nearly 9 per cent over the past quarter as uncertainty over the election weighed.